Ghana’s gold production is projected to rise by approximately 6.25% to an estimated 5.1 million ounces in 2025, according to the Ghana Chamber of Mines. The forecast, revealed in the Chamber’s latest annual report, comes in the wake of the country’s record-breaking performance in 2024, when gold output surged by 19.3% to reach 4.8 million ounces. This solidified Ghana’s position as the continent’s top gold producer, ahead of traditional heavyweights South Africa and Mali.

This upward trajectory in gold production is being underpinned by a combination of increased artisanal mining activity and the launch of new large-scale operations. These gains are offsetting output declines from ageing mines across the country. Notable contributors to this positive trend include Newmont Corporation’s Ahafo South Mine and Shandong Gold’s Namdini Project, both of which are expected to play a pivotal role in enhancing national output.

The Chamber anticipates gold production will fall within a range of 4.4 to 5.1 million ounces in 2025. President of the Chamber of Mines, Michael Akafia, highlighted the pivotal role of small-scale miners in the national output, despite ongoing regulatory uncertainties affecting the sector. In 2024, small-scale and artisanal miners contributed a historic 39.4% to Ghana’s total gold production—translating to approximately 1.9 million ounces.

These miners are projected to produce between 1.5 million and 2 million ounces in 2025. The sector is benefitting from recent policy reforms introduced by the Ghanaian government, which aim to curb illegal trading and improve traceability. Key among these is the elimination of a withholding tax on local gold purchases, a move that industry stakeholders say has already contributed to a decline in smuggling and incentivised legal sales.

Godwin Armah, General Secretary of the Ghana National Association of Small-Scale Miners, stated that the removal of the tax has helped reduce illicit trade significantly and could enable the sector to increase its output by 30% to 40% year-on-year.

However, despite this boom, the artisanal mining sector—of which an estimated 70% to 80% remains unlicensed—is facing scrutiny for its adverse environmental impacts, particularly on cocoa farms and water bodies. The government has introduced GoldBod, a new entity tasked with purchasing gold directly from small-scale miners, aiming to formalise the sector further and improve national reserves.

Nevertheless, the expansion of artisanal and new mining ventures may not be sufficient to offset the stagnation forecast for several mature operations. Mines such as Perseus Mining’s Edikan, Gold Fields’ Damang and Tarkwa, and Zijin Mining’s Akyem Mine are expected to register production declines in the coming year. According to Akafia, a more robust pipeline of exploration and development projects is critical to sustaining long-term growth in Ghana’s mining sector.

Beyond gold, Ghana’s mineral sector is also anticipating significant gains in other key commodities. The Chamber projects manganese production to increase to eight million tonnes in 2025, up from five million tonnes in 2024. Bauxite output is expected to reach two million tonnes from a record 1.7 million tonnes last year. Furthermore, diamond production is forecast to climb to 400,000 carats in 2025, marking an increase from 330,000 carats in 2024.

These developments come as Ghana continues to recover from one of its worst economic crises in decades. Elevated global gold prices have enhanced the country’s export earnings, helping to stabilise the Ghanaian cedi and improve macroeconomic stability. In tandem with cocoa and oil, gold remains a pillar of Ghana’s export economy.

As Africa’s leading gold producer, Ghana’s capacity to maintain and enhance its output will likely have significant implications for regional mining policies, investment flows, and global supply chains. The coming year will test the efficacy of recent reforms and the resilience of the sector amid environmental, regulatory, and operational headwinds.